Compared to the other countries in the region, the growth rate of Pakistan is about 2.1 percent higher
UN report has placed Pakistan, whose current population is over 245 million, in the group of countries whose population is expected to increase through 2054 and could potentially peak in the second half of the century or later.
According to the current projects in the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 report, Pakistan will reach its peak population in 2092 of 404.68 million people.
UN report says that Pakistan’s population is expected to surpass that of Indonesia in 2048 when it will reach 331.29 million.
Between 1998 and 2017, Pakistan’s average population growth rate was 2.40%, the report said. For a population of over 220 million, this is a growth of about 5.28 million people per year.
Pakistan has one of the highest birth rates of 22 births per 1,000 people, it was pointed out. “Very few women use any type of birth control in Pakistan, and the surging population can put too much pressure on water and sanitation systems, result in millions of unemployed people, and overwhelm health and education systems.”
The report predicted that in about 35 years, if this growth continues, the population of Pakistan will eventually become double of what it was back in 2001. Judging from how the population has grown significantly over just ten years, this “doubled population” figure does not seem to be far off.
The current growth rate in Pakistan is close to 2%, but this is expected to halve to less than 1% by the year 2050 – at which point it is predicted to cross the 300 million threshold.
The report also said that the global population reached nearly 8.2 billion by mid-2024 and is expected to grow by another two billion over the next 60 years, peaking at around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s.
It will then fall to around 10.2 billion, which is 700 million lower than expected a decade ago. That’s just one of the key findings revealed in the report published by the UN report.
The report “must be used to reach and respond to the needs of those who have been left behind,” the agency added.
To study this population data more closely, the 28th edition of World Population Prospects (WPP) published by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) since 1951, provides the latest demographic data for 237 countries from 1950 to 2024 and projections up to the year 2100.
The world’s overall fertility rates are dropping, with women having one child fewer on average than they did around 1990.
In more than half of all countries and areas, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1 – the level required for a population to maintain a constant size.
This population growth will increase demand for resources, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia and, combined with poorly managed urbanization and rising living standards, it will worsen environmental impacts.
Climate change, a major challenge, affects these countries the most, where many rely on agriculture – and food insecurity is prevalent.
In countries including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States, population is also expected to increase through 2054 and could potentially peak in the second half of the century or later.
In 2024, 4.7 million babies, or about 3.5 per cent of the total worldwide, were born to mothers under the age of 18.
Of these, some 340,000 were born to children under 15, with serious consequences for the health and well-being of both the young mothers and their children.
Investing in the education of young people, especially girls – and increasing the ages of marriage and first childbearing in countries where these have an early onset – will have positive outcomes for women’s health, educational attainment and labour force participation, according to UN report.
These efforts will also contribute to reducing the scale of the investments required to achieve sustainable development while ensuring that no one is left behind.
